2Q preview: Earnings wave arriving, but spot momentum is faltering

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2Q preview: Earnings wave arriving, but spot momentum is faltering

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Shipping - Asia-Pacific (H/A)

2Q preview: Earnings wave arriving, but

spot momentum is faltering

Estimate Change

2Q Asia Pacific container shipping earnings preview 16 July 2026

Container shipping spot rates have positively surprised in the past few months. We see Equity

this supporting a robust 2Q26 earnings season with mild consensus beats expected, Asia-Pacific

while the full impact of the spot rate surge should arrive at 3Q26 with a rough QoQ Shipping

doubling of profits to ~20% EBIT margins expected. But checks suggest that spot rates Nathan Gee, CFA >>

look to have peaked, and we see container shipping still facing losses into 2H27-28 on Research Analyst

supply pressure around Red Sea reopening and heavy new deliveries. We stay broadly Merrill+65 6678Lynch0418(Singapore)

negative on Asia-ex Japan container liners given medium term supply tailwinds, while we nathan.gee@bofa.com

are Neutral on Japanese shipping with guidance upgrades and potential shareholder Hiro Nakakura, CFA >>

Research Analyst

return surprises at 1Q results (for more see our note: J-shipping 1Q preview). Merrill Lynch (Singapore)

hiro.nakakura@bofa.com

Robust 2Q26 outlook with BofA slightly above consensus Amy Han >>

Strong demand tailwinds from pre-shipping ahead of tariffs, strong green energy flows Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

(boosted by Iran war) and an early peak season have led to a positive surprise to spot amy.han@bofa.com

rates in recent months. We see 2Q26 calendar container earnings trending QoQ higher

to an EBIT margin of ~10% with BofA estimates mildly above consensus. We assume

2Q26 freight rates at +13.5% QoQ across our Asia Pacific coverage with OOIL achieved Exhibit 1: Ratings & price objective