Revising forecast lower, Data Center transition creating a wonky growth curve

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Revising forecast lower, Data Center transition creating a wonky growth curve

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Atlassian Corp

Revising forecast lower, Data Center

transition creating a wonky growth curve

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 105.00 USD | Price: 91.77 USD

DC transition means total rev growth bottoms in FY27 15 July 2026

We are lowering our total revenue forecasts for FY27 by 4.3% and FY28 by 4.1% to Equity

account for less Data Center (DC) revenue and more conservative Cloud assumptions.

Our new total revenue forecast calls for FY7 total revenue of $7,174mn, or +11% y/y

Key Changesgrowth, below the Street at $7,373mn/+14%. The LT debate focuses on its ability to be

a share gainer in what management believes to be a $140bn enterprise system of work (US$) Previous Current

opportunity. NT, we think the debate is focused on if the FY27 total revenue guide will Price Obj. 110.00 105.00

be above or below consensus. A guide above will likely be a catalyst. We are unsure if a 2026E Rev (m) 6,463.4 6,467.9

guide at to below will be enough given shaky software sentiment, despite Atlassian 2027E Rev (m) 7,498.0 7,174.0

being very transparent on the DC transition impact. Trading at 11x EV/CY27E FCF, all the 2028E Rev (m) 8,389.7 8,048.4

risks could be priced in. However, we reiterate our Neutral rating until we have more 2026E EPS 5.55 5.57

data points on what the medium-term total revenue growth algorithm looks like. We 2027E EPS 6.41 5.93

lower our PO to $105 (from $110) for our lower FCF forecast. Multiple unchanged. 2028E EPS 6.97 6.58

Data Center less meaningful LT, but creating a hurdle NT Koji Ikeda, CFA

Research Analyst

We lower our Data Center revenue forecast for FY27 by 16% to $1,508mn and FY28mn BofAS