Driving growth. But Mongolian tax is taxing.

Research evidence excerpt

Driving growth. But Mongolian tax is taxing.

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Rio Tinto plc

Driving growth. But Mongolian tax is

taxing.

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 9,300 GBp | Price: 6,955 GBp

Q2 Production report: No change to production guidance 15 July 2026

Key products: Iron ore. Pilbara (Australia) production 83.5 Mt, +6% QoQ, flat YoY, -4% Equity

vs our estimate, +1% vs consensus (visible alpha). Shipments slightly ahead of

production at 85.3 Mt. Consolidated copper production 213 kt, -7% QoQ, -7% YoY, -1%

Key Changesvs our estimate, -2% vs consensus. Aluminium 841 kt, +1% QoQ, flat YoY, -2% vs our

estimate, -1% vs consensus. Guidance: No change to production guidance. Costs: (US$) Previous Current

Copper C1 guide cut from US 65-75c/lb to 30-50c/lb on better by-products / 2026E EPS 8.60 8.68

productivity. Growth: RIO states +3% YoY increase in copper equivalent production for 2027E EPS 10.53 10.60

H1. We update model for production results, small changes, no change to price objective. 2028E EPS 9.41 9.47

Reiterate Neutral. We recently downgraded RIO (and BHP) to Neutral. See: RIO. 2026E DPS 5.16 5.21

Mongolia: Tax is taxing. Value leakage alert… Jason Fairclough >>

Research Analyst

RIO announced it had paid the (relatively new) $443 mn tax assessment from Mongolian MLI (UK)

government pertaining to tax audits for financial years 2021 and 2022. As required by +44 20 7995 0225 jason.fairclough@bofa.com

law, RIO has paid this amount in full but is reserving its right to dispute the payment.

Kate McCutcheon >>

This is in addition to longer-running disputes covering the years 2013-2020. In January Research Analyst

2025, Rio Tinto offered $295 mn to settle the earlier claims. Total outstanding disputed Merrill Lynch (Australia) kate.mccutcheon@bofa.com

tax amount now > $900 mn.