Retailing Industry Inbound Data Book (Jun 2026): High spending offsets fewer Chinese visitors

Research evidence excerpt

Retailing Industry Inbound Data Book (Jun 2026): High spending offsets fewer Chinese visitors

Foreign visitor numbers-related data

Visitor arrivals from South Korea rose 7.8% YoY to 787k in June

On July 15, the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) released its preliminary

estimate of visitor arrivals to Japan for June 2026. Total visitor arrivals fell 6.8% YoY to

3.149mn, marking the third consecutive month of YoY decline. We believe the main

factor was a sharp 57.3% decline in visitors from China to 341,000. Excluding China,

visitor arrivals remained solid, rising 8.8% YoY to 2.808mn. However, reduced flight

schedules in some markets and typhoon-related flight cancellations also had an impact.

As a result, growth in visitor arrivals excluding China slowed from 14.1% in Jan-May

2026. By market, visitor arrivals from 15 markets, including South Korea, Taiwan and the

US, reached record highs for June. Arrivals from South Korea rose 7.8% YoY to 787k,

while those from Taiwan increased 14.6% to 670k. The data included in this report are

also available in Excel format.

International air capacity for summer 2026 is seen down 1% YoY, weighed

down by weak China and North America routes

According to our airline analysts Nathan Gee and Amy Han, international air capacity

to/from Japan is expected to decline 1% YoY in summer 2026, suggesting only limited

recovery in supply across major markets. By region, lower capacity on China and North

America routes is expected to weigh on the overall total, while Europe routes are still

increasing. That said, Europe routes remain well below 2019 levels, owing to continued

restrictions on flights over Russian airspace.

On short-haul international routes, China routes are expected to decline sharply, down