BofA Freight Follower: Have Ocean rates peaked?

Research evidence excerpt

BofA Freight Follower: Have Ocean rates peaked?

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Transport

BofA Freight Follower: Have Ocean rates

peaked?

Industry Overview

Hormuz tensions rise; Carrers begin return to Red Sea 15 July 2026

Risks around the Strait of Hormuz have increased following the breakdown in Equity

negotiations, with reported vessel attacks rising and geopolitical tensions remaining Global

elevated. Strait transits averaged 19 vessels/day on 11–12 July, down >50% vs. early July Transport

and c.85% below normal; 12 July's 16 vessels marked the lowest daily total in a month. In Muneeba Kayani >>

contrast, the Red Sea is showing tentative signs of reopening, with Maersk restarting Research Analyst

selected transits. However, routing remains security-dependent and contingency plans to MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 5208

divert around the Cape remain in place. Container ship Suez transits rose +6% m/m in muneeba.kayani@bofa.com

June but remained -46% below June 2023 (clean comp); July MTD is up a further +4%. Kate Xiao, CFA >>

Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

+44 20 7996 3051Sea: Peak rates in sight

kate.xiao2@bofa.com

Following the +35% rise in May, spot rates rose a further +29%, with Asia–USEC and

Asia–USWC up +29% and +22% respectively. Strength is feeding into guidance, with JackResearchRaeburnAnalyst>>

Maersk upgrading FY26 outlook on stronger demand and spot rates. The rate spike MLI (UK)

+44 20 7996 3374

appears demand-led, driven by an early seasonal ramp, renewables demand into Europe jack.raeburn@bofa.com

and US tariff pull-forward, despite a -17% m/m fall in June bunker costs. Carriers failed

to hold early-July GRIs as new vessel capacity and capacity released from the Persian

Gulf eased tightness. While carriers are still targeting further hikes on 15 July and 1