2Q26 preview: BBVA down to Neutral; Unicaja moves to Underperform

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 preview: BBVA down to Neutral; Unicaja moves to Underperform

ormalization delayed Sabadell

BBVA has an enviable quality franchise with solid market shares in Mexico, Türkiye and

Spain. Mexico is a large c.60% of BBVA's group profits, and while some trade uncertainty PO new PO old

remains after the July 1st USMCA non-extension, operating trends are resilient. Santander 13.80 11.00

However, the main delta to consensus is Türkiye and current macro trends affect our BBVA 25.00 24.30

investment thesis. As a result, we downgrade BBVA to Neutral from Buy; PO to €25 (ADR CaixaBank 14.20 13.00

Bankinter 14.20 13.50

$28.56) from €24.3 ($28.56). We now forecast profits in Türkiye to reach c.€0.9bn in Unicaja 3.00 3.10

2026e, c.€1.2bn in 2027e and c.€1.8bn in 2028e– asset quality in focus.

Unicaja down to Underperform; valuation gone too far 2Q26 results details Santander 22/07 - call @ 9.00am UKT

Unicaja now trades on c.12x P/E which is a c.25% premium to EU banks and a premium Bankinter 23/07 - call @ 8.00am UKT

to Spain’s national-champion Caixabank. This is despite subpar growth in volumes, lower Sabadell 24/07 - call @ 8.00am UKT

rates’ sensitivity and slower EPS momentum vs. peers. Consensus EPS now offers no CaixaBank 29/07 - call @ 8.00am UKT

scope for further upward revisions. While excess capital still comes with optionality, BBVA 30/07 - call @ 8.30am UKT

Unicaja 31/07 – call @ 8.00am UKTthere are some practical hurdles for it to be fully deployed. Lower PO to €3.0 –

Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral. Source: BofA Global Research BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Caixabank, Santander and Bankinter good print ahead

NII = Net Interest Income

Caixabank still offers the best combination of NII gearing, non-interest income growth NIM = Net Interest Margin