Cut PO; resource investment accelerating

Research evidence excerpt

Cut PO; resource investment accelerating

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INPEX (1605)

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 3,650 JPY | Price: 3,524 JPY

14 July 2026

Lower PO to ¥3,650 from ¥3,800; reiterate Neutral Equity

We cut our PO, following a reduction in our Brent crude oil price assumptions (2026:

US$82/bbl from US$93/bbl; 2027: US$70/bbl from US$78/bbl), which lowers our

earnings forecasts. We raise our valuation multiple to 10.5x FY12/27 P/E (was 8.0x), Key Changes

reflecting expected earnings improvement in FY12/28 and stronger growth prospects (¥) Previous Current

driven by accelerated investment in resource interests. Our Neutral stance reflects our Price Obj. 3,800.00 3,650.00

view that expanding resource interests should support medium- to long-term growth and 2026E Rev (m) 2,568,400.0 2,312,400.0

active shareholder returns should provide downside support for the share price, but we 2027E Rev (m) 2,573,000.0 2,212,100.0

forecast earnings below consensus through FY12/28. 2028E Rev (m) 2,301,300.0 2,294,300.0

2026E EPS 445.16 382.05

Cut earnings forecasts on lower oil price assumptions 2027E EPS 474.60 346.88

We reduce our net profit forecasts to ¥440bn for FY12/26 from ¥510bn (vs. consensus 2028E EPS 376.42 363.76

¥474.0bn) and to ¥390bn for FY12/27 from ¥525bn (vs. consensus ¥468.3bn). We expect 2026E EBITDA (m) 1,856,000.0 1,643,000.0

it to announce a ¥100bn share buyback at the 1H results, but do not expect any surprise 2027E EBITDA (m) 1,941,000.0 1,532,000.0

as such a measure would be consistent with its shareholder return policy. 2028E EBITDA (m) 1,628,000.0 1,612,000.0

Resource investment to accelerate; valuation supportive Takashi Enomoto >>

Although investment in the Browse project will no longer proceed, the company has Research Analyst

BofAS Japan