Japan SPE: TSMC results read-across: Capex hike, comments on inflation look positive for the SPE sector as a whole

Research evidence excerpt

Japan SPE: TSMC results read-across: Capex hike, comments on inflation look positive for the SPE sector as a whole

Goldman Sachs Japan SPE

Exhibit 1: Sales exposure to TSMC (based on FY25 results)

Lasertec and Ulvac figures are based on our estimates.

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 2: TP risks and methodology for companies mentioned

Company Name (rating) Ticker 12-m TP (¥) Methodology Risks

slowdown or share loss in AI-related demand

slowdown in China demand or tightening of export controls DISCO (Buy) 6146.T 100,000 Basedapply aonsector-relativethe global SPEpremiumsector ofaverage50%. multiple of 18X and our FY3/28E estimates. We then (-)(-)(-) rapid yen appreciation against the USD

(-) Semiconductor capex enters a downcycle

Ebara (Buy) 6361.T 7,800 Based on the correlation between P/B and our FY12/27E ROE estimates. (-)(-) SlowIncreasingadoptioncompetitivenessof new technologyof Chinesein semiconductorCMP systemdevicesmakers

(-) Decline in crude oil/LNG prices, oil refining/petrochemical margins

(-) Decline in market share due to new entrants

Lasertec (Buy)* 6920.T 67,000 Basedestimates.on theWeglobalthen applySPE sectora sector-relativeaverage multiplepremiumof of18X50%.and the average of our FY6/28E (-)(-) LackWeakerof progresscustomerininvestmentACTIS adoptionappetitebyforwaferleading-edgefabs process nodes

(-) Rapid appreciation of the yen against the US dollar

inventory adjustment phase in the semiconductor industry

further strengthening of export restrictions Tokyo Electron (Buy) 8035.T 83,000 Basedapply aonsector-relativethe global SPEpremiumsector ofaverage30%. multiple of 18X and our FY3/28E estimates. We then (-)(-)(-) prolongeddepressed valuation multiple amid upward pressure on interest rates and other factors