PGR and ALL Views Post-June Financial Releases: AMERICAS INSURANCE: PROPERTY & CASUALTY

Research evidence excerpt

PGR and ALL Views Post-June Financial Releases: AMERICAS INSURANCE: PROPERTY & CASUALTY

Equity Research

16 July 2026 | 9:22AM EDT

AMERICAS INSURANCE: PROPERTY & CASUALTY

PGR and ALL Views Post-June Financial Releases

We update our ALL/PGR estimates to consider June financial releases. We would Robert Cox

+1(212)902-9813 | rob.cox@gs.com

note that PGR/ALL CAT Loads represent ~70%-80% of the 5-year average CAT Load Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

for both companies, which compares favorably to our 2Q26 Preview estimate for Jack Kendall

industry US CAT losses to represent 85%-90% of the 5-year average. +1(212)902-0331Goldman Sachs & Co.| jack.kendall@gs.comLLC

Victoria Gong

+1(212)902-7254 |

ALL victoria.gong@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

ALL reported June pre-tax CATs of $563mn (~70%/90% of the 3Y/5Y average),

which came in below our $850mn estimate, which was informed by a highly active

first 25 days of Severe Weather activity. While it is unclear if PGR actuarial

adjustments impacted the CAT load for the quarter, PGR/ALL CATS on average

represented ~70%-80% of the 5-Year average load, which is modestly below the

85%-90% CAT Load that we expected for the industry entering the quarter. Our EPS

estimate for 2Q26 increases by 15% to $6.98 (vs. Visible Alpha Cons. of $5.30), while

our 2026/2027/2028 estimates increase by 3%/~0%/~0%. We maintain our ALL

$250 price target (6% Total Return), which represents a 1.8x multiple on 2Q27

BV (ex-AOCI).

PGR

Following PGR June results our EPS estimates increase by 1% in 2026 and decrease

by 3%/5% in 2027 and 2028. The lower EPS growth primarily reflects lower NPW

growth, which we have chosen not to offset with higher buyback assumptions

(despite ample capacity within premium leverage limits), as our buyback assumption