ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN): Downgrade to Hold: In the doldrums

Research evidence excerpt

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN): Downgrade to Hold: In the doldrums

l of the judgement, or tariff hikes, or regulatory relief, could lift the loss Combined Ratio 105.0 105.9 104.4 103.6

ratio by 20-30bp, reducing PAT growth by ~200-300bp, in our view. The company may 52-WEEK PRICE (INR)

also moderate motor TP growth, which could further soften overall top-line growth.

2100.00

Cut EPS estimates, TP, and downgrade to Hold rating: Despite strong fundamentals,

1850.00

ICICIGI remains in a tough operating environment, with limited near-term re-rating

catalysts. We cut our EPS estimates by 8.5/5.0/3.6% over FY27/28/29, to reflect slower 07/25 01/26 07/261600.00

premium growth and higher combined ratio. Overall, we are estimating FY26-29e CAGRs TargetHigh: 2042.90price: 1880.00Low: 1689.10 Current: 1814.60

of 13% in premiums, 13% in EPS and average RoE of 16.5% (FY27-29e). We cut TP to Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

INR1,880 (from INR2,200), valuing the stock at 27x FY28e EPS (vs 30x previously) and

downgrade to Hold rating (from Buy). Clarity on motor reserving would be a key stock Rahil Shah*

catalyst in the near term. Analyst, India Financials

HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

Key observations on 1QFY27 performance: Limited

rahil.shah@hsbc.co.in

◆ GDPI growth was muted (up 8% y-o-y in 1QFY27) impacted by a decline in fire +91 22 6628 3719

insurance (down c32% y-o-y) amidst intense competitive pressure. Abhishek Murarka*

Senior Analyst, India Financials

◆ CoR ratio was at 107.2% (+430bps y-o-y) due to additional provisioning in motor HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

Limited

TP and higher losses in fire insurance. Excluding this, CoR was 102.3% (+10bp). abhishek.murarka@hsbc.co.in

+91 73049 07567