Conagra Brands Is the First Cut Always the Deepest?

Research evidence excerpt

Conagra Brands Is the First Cut Always the Deepest?

g overhang on the shares. The company

announced a 50% reduction to its dividend, which is expected to generate approximately

$335mm of incremental annual discretionary cash flow and accelerate its path toward its 3.0x

leverage target, over time. Importantly, the move also creates greater flexibility to reinvest in

the business. As an initial step, management outlined plans to increase A&P spending by

roughly $40mm in FY27 and raise capex by $125mm. We expect CAG to remain disciplined and

deliberate in allocating this capital, balancing near-term profitability and cash flow objectives

with investments that can drive the highest returns. Areas of focus are likely to include the

frozen portfolio and select meat snack brands, where incremental investment could support

stronger growth trajectories. At the same time, supply chain modernization remains a critical

priority. Recall that CAG has faced a series of self-inflicted operational disruptions over the

years, and management has repeatedly emphasized the need for "radical simplification"

through SKU rationalization and assortment management. In fact, Mr. Brase has recently noted

that despite being similar in scale to SJM, CAG operates roughly twice as many manufacturing

facilities, underscoring the complexity of its network. Given the impracticality of investing

evenly across all 40 plants, we believe the company will increasingly prioritize targeted

investments in key facilities to improve service levels, reliability, and overall operational

efficiency.

CAG: Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)

2026 2027 2028 Change y/y

FY May Actual Old New Cons Old New Cons 2027 2028

Q1 0.39A N/A 0.25E 0.37E N/A N/A 0.39E -36% N/A

Q2 0.45A N/A 0.43E 0.43E N/A N/A 0.45E -4% N/A