Risks to the US-Brazil-China Soybean Triangle

Research evidence excerpt

Risks to the US-Brazil-China Soybean Triangle

Commodities Research

16 July 2026 | 4:30AM EDT

AGRICULTURE ANALYST

n Soybeans are crushed into soybean meal (animal feed) and soybean oil (food and Lina Thomas

+1(212)902-8376 | lina.thomas@gs.com

biofuels). China accounts for ~60% of global soybean imports, while Brazil and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

the US supply ~85% of global exports. We discuss the risks to soybean prices Daan Struyven

+1(212)357-4172 |

through the lens of the US-Brazil-China soybean triangle. daan.struyven@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

On the supply side:

n Risk #1 (price upside) High fertilizer prices may tighten Brazil soybean

supply… While Brazil’s lower land costs supported rapid acreage expansion and

helped it overtake the US as the world’s largest soybean producer, higher

fertilizer costs could reduce Brazil’s cost advantage due to its heavy reliance on

imported fertilizer and agrochemicals.

n … while (price downside) encouraging US soybean supply. Unlike Brazil, where

soybeans and corn are grown sequentially, US farmers choose between the two

crops. Because soybeans require significantly less nitrogen fertilizer than corn,

higher fertilizer prices typically favor US soybean acreage.

On the demand side:

n Risk #2 (price upside/downside) Trade policy can swing China demand for US

soybeans. US soybean prices rose 4% on July 6 following reports of Chinese

purchases of US soybeans, consistent with commitments made at the mid‑May

Trump-Xi summit. While China has deliberately diversified soybean imports

toward Brazil since the 2018 trade tensions, it cannot fully replace US supply

because the two exporters operate on offsetting seasonal calendars.

n Risk #3 (price upside) Rising energy security concerns support soybean