2Q26 Rail and Logistics Preview: Earnings Upgrades Continue; Thoughts on Early Greenshoots

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Rail and Logistics Preview: Earnings Upgrades Continue; Thoughts on Early Greenshoots

Equity Research

16 July 2026 | 3:02AM EDT

AMERICAS TRANSPORTATION

2Q26 Rail and Logistics Preview: Earnings Upgrades Continue; Thoughts

on Early Greenshoots

Bottom line: Our 2Q26 Preview reveals some of the most observed and Jordan Alliger

+1(212)357-4913 |

anecdotal optimism since 2021/early 2022. While conversations with management jordan.alliger@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

teams across our coverage universe do not necessarily suggest companies are ready

Paul Stoddardto call for a full freight volume upswing, our sense is that there is at least demand +1(801)744-3761 |

stability, and in some cases it feels management teams have tried to convey or paul.x.stoddard@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

suggest that conversations with some customers are tilting more optimistic around Andrzej Tomczyk, CFA

the 2H freight economy. While the 2H demand outlook is still to be determined, +1(212)357-4445andrzej.tomczyk@gs.com|

there are what we would describe as nascent – dare we say – greenshoots. Any Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

renewed hostilities within the Middle East and possible flow-through impacts on oil

and gas prices and inflation could yet derail the consumer and eventual emergence

from the freight recession; still, it remains encouraging that there are several positive

signs that normal volume seasonality and perhaps even demand inflection are closer.

In this context—and on the back of our raised 2Q estimates (see Exhibit 2 plus

our prior TL and LTL Estimate Raises)—we have now revised our 2H26 profit

forecasts higher for virtually every company under coverage (note that our

railcar lessor/manufacturer preview is not included in this report); we note that