ASML Holding (ASML NA): Buy: ASML opens the lithography tool spigot

Research evidence excerpt

ASML Holding (ASML NA): Buy: ASML opens the lithography tool spigot

16 July 2026

ASML Holding (ASML NA) EquitiesSemiconductors & Equipment

Buy: ASML opens the lithography tool spigot Netherlands

◆ Post results, we came away thinking demand remains strong MAINTAIN BUY

and ASML’s backlog/visibility have increased meaningfully

TARGET PRICE (EUR) PREVIOUS TARGET (EUR)

◆ Combined with rising tool supply and pricing power, we have

2,149.00 1,883.00 increased confidence in revenue growth into 2028

SHARE PRICE (EUR) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE◆ Raise 2027/28e EBIT by 27%/37%; reflecting higher 2028

EPS power, increase TP to EUR2,149 (from EUR1,883) 1,549.40 +38.7%

(as of 15 Jul 2026)

Capacity adds reinforce the “visibility to 2028” message; raise TP to EUR2,149: MARKET DATA

Market cap (EURm) 601,396 Free float 98%

ASML delivered a strong June quarter, with operating income of EUR3,456m coming in Market cap (USDm) 686,764 BBG ASML NA

12%/13% ahead of HSBCe/consensus, while its updated 2026 outlook materially beat 3m ADTV (USDm) 1,162 RIC ASML.AS

expectations (see Strong beat and raise; capacity additions underscore strong FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (EUR)

demand, 15 July 2026). Importantly, ASML also announced it intends to raise EUV and Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

HSBC EPS 24.71 40.17 57.49 78.15ArFi tool capacity by 30% in 2027 and is investigating another 30% increase in 2028, HSBC EPS (prev) 24.71 33.01 45.49 56.72

underscoring the strength of demand and rising visibility. This outcome is consistent with Change (%) 0.0 21.7 26.4 37.8

Consensus EPS 24.91 32.14 44.28 54.95

what we highlighted on 12 July – that visibility was extending into 2028, with scope for PE (x) 62.7 38.6 26.9 19.8

upside if tool supply surprises positively.