AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK): Hold: IA action on brokers points to tougher oversight

Research evidence excerpt

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK): Hold: IA action on brokers points to tougher oversight

16 July 2026

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) EquitiesInsurance

Hold: IA action on brokers points to tougher oversight Hong Kong

◆ IA penalised insurance brokers and signals further action;

MAINTAIN HOLD

senior executives will be held accountable for compliance

◆ We expect insurers to show reduced risk appetite; Hong TARGET PRICE (HKD) PREVIOUS TARGET (HKD)

Kong VONB growth could slow noticeably in 3Q26 81.00 81.00

◆ Maintain Hold and TP of HKD81.00 SHARE PRICE (HKD) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

74.10 +9.3%

What’s new: (1) The Hong Kong Insurance Authority (IA) announced on 12 July that (as of 14 Jul 2026)

it has imposed licensing renewal conditions on two insurance brokers for failing to MARKET DATA

effectively control referral activities, requiring the two brokers to suspend the Market cap (HKDm) 766,686 Free float 100%

Market cap (USDm) 97,817 BBG 1299 HK

acceptance of referral business. (2) AIA will announce 1H26 results in the week of 3m ADTV (USDm) 366 RIC 1299.HK

17 August, we refreshed our estimates to reflect our latest forecasts.

FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (USD)

Relevant details from IA’s latest statement: (1) Regulatory action on the two Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

IFRS EPS 0.59 0.91 0.82 0.90

brokers is not the end. IA stated that the regulatory actions against two brokers “are IFRS EPS (prev) 0.59 0.89 0.83 0.91

not isolated initiatives and we will not end from there”. We believe this signals further Change (%) 0.0 2.4 -0.7 -0.6

Consensus EPS 0.64 0.73 0.81 0.91

regulatory actions down the road. (2) Insurers could also be held accountable. PE (x) 16.0 10.4 11.5 10.5

The IA stated “senior executives at licensed institutions are held accountable for Dividend yield (%) 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.3