UK GDP (May): Economics - Data Reactions

Research evidence excerpt

UK GDP (May): Economics - Data Reactions

16 July 2026

UK GDP (May) EconomicsData Reactions-

Losing momentum United Kingdom

◆ UK GDP grew by 0.1% m-o-m in May (consensus: 0.0%), with 0.3% services Elizabeth Martins

growth offsetting falls in industrial production and construction SeniorHSBC BankEconomist,plc UK

liz.martins@hsbc.com

◆ Despite the upside surprise, the UK appears to be undergoing its usual post- +44 20 7991 2170

Q1 slowdown, with no growth on a net basis over April and May

◆ The World Cup and hot weather will have mixed effects on the economy – but

the net effect is likely to have been a temporary positive one in July

Facts

UK GDP grew by 0.1% m-o-m in May (consensus: 0.0%). This took the 3m/3m growth rate to 0.7%, from

an upwardly revised 0.8% in April (charts 1 and 2).

This was driven by the service sector, which grew by 0.3% m-o-m/ 0.7% 3m/3m. Within that, the biggest

driver was scientific research and development, which rose 5.1% m-o-m and contributed 0.06ppts to

overall GDP growth.

Overall consumer facing services were up by 0.5% in May and 0.5% on a 3m/3m basis (chart 3).

Other sectors looked less robust: industrial production fell 0.5%, with the manufacturing sector growing by

only 0.1% after a strong couple of months. According to PMI survey compilers S&P Global, recent strength

may have been driven by frontloading in anticipation of Iran-related disruption and inflation. So we may be

seeing some of this effect start to fizzle out.

Construction fell by 0.8% m-o-m, which meant it was down 1.8% in y-o-y terms. This also affected the

service sector in May, with a 3.2% 3m/3m fall in services to buildings and landscape activities. This may

suggest that a recent improvement in the sector is losing momentum: certainly, the PMI reading continues