Alcoa Corp (AA.N): 2Q26: EBITDA Miss But Strong FCF; 3Q Cost Guide Positive; WA Permitting Timeline Maybe Slower

Research evidence excerpt

Alcoa Corp (AA.N): 2Q26: EBITDA Miss But Strong FCF; 3Q Cost Guide Positive; WA Permitting Timeline Maybe Slower

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16 Jul 2026 20:54:25 ET │ 12 pages

Alcoa Corp (AA.N)

2Q26: EBITDA Miss But Strong FCF; 3Q Cost Guide Positive; WA

Permitting Timeline Maybe Slower

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Price (16 Jul 26 16:00) US$46.85 AA reported 2Q26 adj. EBITDA of $901m vs Citi $946m. FCF was stronger

Target price US$76.00 than expected even with working capital slightly negative & the best since

2022. The EBITDA miss vs our model was in alumina shipments due to Expected share price return 62.2%

Pinjarra instability & cyclone impact (nat gas disruption) - note: 3% cut to Expected dividend yield 0.9%

annual guidance to 9.5-9.6mt. 3Q cost guidance looks generally better- Expected total return 63.1%

than-expected with diesel & fuel oil a bit lower and we set 3Q EBITDA at Market Cap US$12,363M

$608m (see Fig 2). Other highlights: AA and Massena East developer are

assessing NY state executive order declaring a 1 year moratorium on new

data centers - but still moving forward; WA EPA approvals process still

going well but maybe delayed past YE26 guidance (note: AA has built in a Alexander Hacking, CFAAC

6 month contingency). Citi remains structurally bullish aluminum but did +1-212-816-6232

recent chop price forecasts by 10-20%, see report: An existential moment alex.hacking@citi.com

for the aluminium bull market.

Aluminum/a Market — Alcoa market view: Aluminum price drop is mostly

sentiment with 3-3.5mt of ME capacity still offline. Fundamentals remain strong

given deficit market with low inventory. Demand resilient especially in US and

Europe. China forecast at 45-46mt for 2026 - slightly above cap but no

fundamental change to policy (creep, not new capacity). Alumina more challenged