U.S. Homebuilding & Building Products Price-Cost Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Homebuilding & Building Products Price-Cost Tracker

Barclays | U.S. Homebuilding & Building Products

Costs declined m/m in WTI crude, plastic resins (MHK) and polypropylene (WMS). Into July (as

of 07/14/26), trucking spot rates, lumber, steel and ocean freight have continued to rise. HDPE

has trended lower into the month according to consultant forecasts, while forecasts also reflect

polypropylene trending lower. WTI crude has also trended lower into the month. Brass inputs

have moved modestly higher into July (copper flat m/m, zinc +1% m/m).

We observed strengthening pricing power in June, offsetting petrochemical cost inflation

from March and April, while costs have generally stepped lower since mid-May. WMS was a

strong read – along with strong m/m price in storm sewer pipe in June, HDPE and PP have

stepped lower from peak levels with industry consultants expecting further deflation ahead.

Also, we saw plastic pipe PPI move higher, largely driven by sewer/storm pipe (+3% m/m) which

should benefit CNM and FERG as they pass it through and expect this could be an incremental

2H tailwind. JHX may benefit from PVC moving just slightly lower (industry consultants forecast

PVC -4% m/m in July after June was actually flat); we think PVC is ~LSD-MSD % of company

COGS. For MAS and FBIN, plumbing PPI was flat again in June m/m (though still up 8% y/y).

While OC could see risk to its June fiberglass insulation price sticking (as peer Knauf delayed its

June price increase to September), Roofing price remains strong with the June PPI +4% m/m.

Still, we wonder if this price increase coupled with the April increase is enough to offset rising

asphalt, which has stepped much higher into June (+26% m/m), but generally we would assume

asphalt to follow oil prices into 3Q.