Apr-Jun Results Focus Points: Upside/Downside vs. Guidance

Research evidence excerpt

Apr-Jun Results Focus Points: Upside/Downside vs. Guidance

IdeaPreviewMto earnings

Focus KPI Focus KPI Surprise Likely impact to consensus EPS*

Daito Trust Construction 1878.T

OP In-line Largely unchanged

• Building construction orders remain weak; focus on cost pass-through and building construction GPM.

• On the other hand, real estate leasing and development remain strong; we expect 1Q OP progress rate to be

firm vs. 1H/full-year plan.

• We think 20% ROE is achievable this year without buybacks, but focus on direction of next mid-term plan.

Sumitomo Forestry 1911.T

RP in overseas housing Likely downside surprise Modest revision higher

• Key focus is on impact of the Tri Pointe Homes consolidation, including higher interest expense and one-off

costs.

• We also watch the level of demand in the US single-family housing market through orders, ASP, and GPM

trends.

• Also focus on the ramp-up progress of the acquired US manufacturing plants and earnings recovery in the

lumber and building materials business.

Daiwa House Industry 1925.T

OP Likely upside surprise Modest revision higher

• Focus on OP progress vs. conservative guidance that factors in Middle East risks.

• We think a full-year guidance raise would be modestly positive for the stock in the short term within the

housing industry.

• Conservative assumptions for property sale gains imply upside if disposal gains track well, a positive signal

for the broader real estate market.

• US housing demand remains relatively solid in areas covered by the company, but rising incentives warrant

close monitoring of orders and gross margins.

• Also watch for indications on the timing and direction of the new mid-term plan.

Sekisui House 1928.T

OP in US detached housing sales

Likely downside surprise Modest revision lower