Western Union Co (WU.N): Waiting for NY’s Approval

Research evidence excerpt

Western Union Co (WU.N): Waiting for NY’s Approval

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16 Jul 2026 18:00:00 ET │ 12 pages

Western Union Co (WU.N)

Waiting for NY’s Approval

CITI'S TAKE

We are revising our estimates for WU to remove the previously assumed

mid-2Q contribution from Intermex and now model a mid-3Q close as the Neutral

transaction remains pending approval from one U.S. state (NY). While the

Price (16 Jul 26 16:00) US$8.34deal has received approval/non-objection from all other applicable

regulators and international jurisdictions, timing of the final approval Target price US$8.50↓

remains an overhang on the stock. Excluding Intermex, we continue to from US$9.50expect WU’s underlying trends to improve sequentially in 2Q, supported by

easier comparisons in NA CMT, continued strength in CS, the ramping of Expected share price return 1.9%

exclusive agents, and the further regionalization of WU’s operating Expected dividend yield 11.3%

structure, with a Q/Q margin recovery a key consideration after the 1Q miss. Expected total return 13.2%We continue to view Intermex as strategically important for WU’s NA retail

footprint and longer-term cost synergies. We remain Neutral and lower our Market Cap US$2,606M

target price to $8.50 (from $9.50), attributable to elevated deal timing

uncertainty.

n Estimate Revisions. Price Performance

(RIC: WU.N, BB: WU US)

– For 2Q26, we model adj. revenue growth of -0.9% (5.3% prior), Adj. operating

margin of 17.7% (17.6% prior), and Adj. EPS of $0.39 ($0.42 prior) primarily

given the absence of the half-quarter benefit of IMXI.

– For 3Q26, we model adj. revenue growth of 7.6% (13.8% prior), Adj. operating

margin of 20.7% (20.7% prior), and Adj. EPS of $0.53 ($0.56 prior) primarily

given the now assumed half-quarter benefit from IMXI (full-quarter

previously).