Vicious Circle Turns Virtuous

Research evidence excerpt

Vicious Circle Turns Virtuous

Idea

July 16, 2026 06:52 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Vicious Circle Turns Virtuous Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comMadison J Pasterchick +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

What’s Changed Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

Nancy Hipp

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL.O) From To Research Associate

Price Target $185.00 $190.00 Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL.O, UAL US)

Reaction to earnings

Airlines | United States of America

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision lower Stock Rating Overweight

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Industry View Attractive

consensus EPS Price target $190.00

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Shr price, close (Jul 15, 2026) $120.97

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $39,742

52-Week Range $138.77-82.42

UAL’s call reiterated the bull case on structurally higher industry

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

pricing power – led by the industry’s need to push price and the EPS ($)** 10.62 10.76 16.22 18.23

consumer’s willingness to accept it. This transformation of a EPS ($)§ 10.57 10.46 15.11 17.34

ModelWare EPS ($) 10.31 11.27 16.22 18.23

multi-decade vicious circle into a virtuous one should drive

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

higher margins now and multiples over time. framework** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Key Takeaways

The setup into 2H26 remains strong, with 4Q yields tracking 14% above 3Q at the

same point, record-low seat cancellations, and close-in business bookings +30%.