2Q26 Preview: A Key Test Passed but Another Emerges

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: A Key Test Passed but Another Emerges

IdeaMother hand, if current RASM and capacity levels become the new baseline, the

industry will go a long way toward achieving the multiple re-rating that it has been

lobbying for and will likely attract more long-term investors. We caution against

hyperfocusing on one number in isolation (esp. 3Q RASM) as the Airlines will likely

use all the tools at their disposal (capacity vs. RASM vs. CASMxF) differently across

the industry but ultimately what matters will be the trajectory of EBIT margins

and growth into 2027, which will set the normalized earnings levels for the

industry.

Key trends we are looking for:

1. Demand. Summer travel will likely get an A+ across the board but the key

focus will be on the step down into August and September, seasonally the

shoulder months of the year. A collapse in trough traffic after a strong

peak will be poorly received by investors and could pressure Airline

RASM retention and CASMxF. Forward booking curves will be closely

watched.

2. Yields. 2Q will likely see amongst the strongest RASM growth this industry

has ever printed and there will be two offsetting forces at work into 3Q –

momentum from having multiple rounds of passthroughs through the

quarter offset by potentially more demand elasticity in a seasonally weaker

quarter as well as comps that get a bit harder. There will be a lot of

attention on the sequential y/y growth from 2Q to 3Q but we think 4Q is

what really matters (though we may get a limited update on 4Q at this

time).

3. Capacity. The industry responded to the conflict by taking down 3Q capacity

sharply as early as March/April and should be in a good spot there but there

are already industry murmurings about 4Q capacity looking