Noise Continues but Clear Underlying Improvement as Well

Research evidence excerpt

Noise Continues but Clear Underlying Improvement as Well

Idea

July 22, 2026 07:02 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMAlaska Air Group Inc | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Noise Continues but Clear Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comMadison J Pasterchick +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

Underlying Improvement as Nancy Hipp

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

Well

Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK.N, ALK UN)

Airlines | United States of America

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Stock Rating Overweight

Unchanged Modest shortfall Modest revision lower Industry View Attractive

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target $78.00

consensus EPS Shr price, close (Jul 21, 2026) $45.46

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $5,052

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research 52-Week Range $65.80-33.05

ALK dealt with a tougher hand than most peers in 2Q by

operating well and continuing to check the boxes on integration

catalysts. The promise of the LT thesis remains and execution is

improving as well, which makes the Fall Investor Day a key

catalyst to get investors to buy into the story again.

Key Takeaways

2Q missed a low bar and while the 3Q guide was lower than MSe/cons., adjusting

for fuel, below-the-line items and Hawaii weather, the guide was good.

Continued external noise means we are still waiting for line-of-sight to LT targets,

but there are clear signs of underlying improvement.

With robust industry demand, return to strong operational reliability and

integration milestones largely behind them, ALK should be in a much better

place.

Sept 29 Investor Day will clearly be an important catalyst for the stock.

If ALK can convince the street about normalized EPS of $7+ – let alone $10+ –