The Consumer Diaries: US Economic Briefing | North America

Research evidence excerpt

The Consumer Diaries: US Economic Briefing | North America

Idea

July 16, 2026 01:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMUS Economic Briefing | North America Arunima Sinha

Global Economist

The Consumer Diaries Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.comHeather Berger +1 212 761-4125

Economist

Heather.Berger@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2296

The eighth in our series on the US consumer, with views from Jenna L Giannelli

economics, credit and equities. CreditJenna.Giannelli@morganstanley.comanalyst +1 212 761-4340

Michelle M. Weaver, CFA

Equity Strategist

Michelle.M.Weaver@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-5254M

Key Takeaways James Egan

Strategist

Weak sentiment no longer reliably signals weaker spending; macro fundamentals James.F.Egan@MorganStanley.com +1 212 761-4715

matter far more in explaining consumer behavior. Carolyn L Campbell

Forward-looking expectations that are orthogonal to macro conditions emerge as Carolyn.Campbell@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3748

Michael T Gapen a better sentiment signal for future discretionary real spending.

Chief US Economist

Housing affordability has plateaued and that is being reflected in purchase Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0571

Sam D Coffin

volumes. Homeowners remain supported as HPA has started to reaccelerate. Economist

Consumer ABS continues to show middling performance. Auto ABS DQs fell, but Sam.Coffin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4630

Diego Anzoategui

less than expected. Unsecured consumer DQs improved, but partly due to mix Economist

shift. Diego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8573

Katie Solovieva

Consumer sentiment and household finance outlooks improved in AlphaWise Data Analyst

data. Inflation remains the top concern, suggesting resilient yet cautious Katie.Solovieva@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6753

Lingdi Xu