Aker BP ASA (AKRBP.OL): Higher capex to support production >500 kboepd into the 2030s; remain Sell rated on premium valuation

Research evidence excerpt

Aker BP ASA (AKRBP.OL): Higher capex to support production >500 kboepd into the 2030s; remain Sell rated on premium valuation

Goldman Sachs Aker BP ASA (AKRBP.OL)

a favourable taxation regime, which incentivised capex on technological improvements,

as well as synergistic M&A over the last seven years place the company as one of the

most profitable in our Top Projects 2026 Oil & Gas IRR curve. A major driver for Aker BP

is Johan Sverdrup, one of the key growth projects and lowest cost developments in the

world.

Sverdrup’s production averaged 214 kboepd net to Aker BP in 2Q26 (-4% qoq vs 223

kboepd in 1Q26), still described by management as world-class with high production

efficiency and continued field optimisation. The subsea infill drilling campaign is

progressing (new infill wells + water injectors) and Aker BP concluded the

redetermination process initiated in 2025, resulting in a +0.5pp increase in ownership to

31.72%. On Phase 3 (sanctioned last year, per Equinor as operator), subsea templates

have been installed, drilling starts in 4Q26 and first oil is scheduled for 4Q27; Phase 4 is

being matured with potential start-up in 2029.

At Yggdrasil, activity levels remain elevated at the Stord yard as the project transitions

into the offshore installation phase, ahead of first oil in summer 2027. Key milestones

delivered YTD include the completion of the power-from-shore system and the safe

installation of the Hugin B topside (2,500 tons) on its jacket last week - the first topside

now in place. Hugin A (29,000 tons) is scheduled for installation with Pioneering Spirit

towards the end of 2026, with management flagging that the heavy weight and short lift

window (<2 hours, quay-to-installed <1 day) provide flexibility to hit weather windows

year-round.