Q2 EBITDA miss; another guidance downgrade

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 EBITDA miss; another guidance downgrade

Update

July 16, 2026 05:35 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MTelenor | Europe Terence Tsui

Equity Analyst

Q2 EBITDA miss; another Terence.Tsui@morganstanley.comEmmet B Kelly +44 20 7425-3095

Emmet.Kelly@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6830

guidance downgrade Lindsey C Zastawny

Lindsey.Zastawny@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1237

Reaction to earnings Harrison Williams, CFA

Unchanged Modest shortfall Modest revision lower Harrison.Williams@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6627

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Telenor (TEL.OL, TEL NO)

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Telecommunications Services | Norway

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Key Takeaways Industry View Attractive

Price target NKr 170.00

Q2 was a 4% EBITDA miss, mainly due to Norway. Shr price, close (Jul 15, 2026) NKr 145.20

52-Week Range NKr 178.70- 139.20

Underlying EBITDA growth in Norway slowed to -2% from +7% last Q (tough Mkt cap, curr (mn) NKr 198,664

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* NKr 63,815

comps, competition, higher IT costs). EV, curr (mn)* NKr 274,273

The 2026 guidance was revised downwards again (after a downgrade in Q1). * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

At the mid-point, FCF guidance is lower by 5% vs old targets and 11% lower than

consensus.

We expect shares to underperform by more than MSD.

Telenor has published its Q2 results. Key highlights were:

1. Q2 revenues and EBITDA were disappointing: Group revenues and EBITDA were

1% and 4% below respectively versus consensus. The Nordics missed EBITDA

expectations particularly in Norway. Q2 organic service revenue growth was -0.7%

(vs +1% in Q1) and organic EBITDA was -4.8% (+3% in Q1). EBITDA growth was -3.1%