Very challenging Q2 so far

Research evidence excerpt

Very challenging Q2 so far

Update

July 16, 2026 11:23 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MNordic Telcos | Europe Terence Tsui

Equity Analyst

Very challenging Q2 so far Terence.Tsui@morganstanley.comEmmet B Kelly +44 20 7425-3095

Emmet.Kelly@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6830

Key Takeaways Harrison Williams, CFA

Q2 reporting for the Nordics has so far been disappointing, with guidance Harrison.Williams@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6627

downgrades at Elisa and Telenor. Lindsey C Zastawny

As such, investors are questioning the "safe-haven" status and premium valuation Lindsey.Zastawny@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1237

of these stocks. Telecommunications Services

Europe

EBITDA comps will continue to be tough after strong growth in 2025 (cost- Industry View Attractive

control) ...

… but markets have also deteriorated, particularly in Norway, and Finland is still

recovering after its H2 25 shock.

Equity stories amongst the Nordics are being challenged: The historical favourable

perception of the Nordics being a safe haven with rational 3-player markets with

very strong cost focus and predictable guidance built up over many years is being

tested following Q2 results.

Telenor: Another downgrade to guidance: After lowering guidance in Q1 on 2 of

the metrics, recall: (i) Low-to-mid single-digit organic growth in adjusted EBITDA in

the Nordics (adjusted from mid-single digit) (ii) Flat-to-low single-digit organic

growth in adjusted EBITDA for Group (adjusted from low-to-mid single-digit),

Telenor cut guidance again in Q2. Management target (i) Flat to low-single-digit

organic growth in Nordic service revenues (changed from low-single-digit) (ii) Flat to

low-single-digit organic growth in adjusted EBITDA in the Nordics (changed from

low-to-mid-single-digit).