Ariston Holding (ARIS.MI): Growth potential remains undervalued, reiterate Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Ariston Holding (ARIS.MI): Growth potential remains undervalued, reiterate Buy

Equity Research

15 July 2026 | 5:41PM BST

Ariston Holding (ARIS.MI): Growth potential remains undervalued,

reiterate Buy

We remain Buy rated on Ariston, updating our TP to €4.30 (from €4.70). We Christian Hinderaker, CFA

+44(20)7774-7366 |

update estimates to reflect 1Q26 results, the closure of the Riello acquisition, and christian.hinderaker@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

our refreshed FX model. We also reflect our latest views on the group’s end-markets.

Hollie Cooper

While policy changes in France and Germany have the potential to reduce visibility +44(20)7051-0956 |

over customer decision-making, recent momentum in incentive application data hollie.cooper@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

should be a near-term positive and recovering new build demand should support

better growth rates in 2027. We continue to view Ariston as undervalued given its

earnings and FCF recovery potential, with the stock offering one of the highest FCF

yields in the sector at c.10% on FY26E. We view its current multiples as attractive,

noting its >15% adj. EPS CAGR over FY25-29E.

Estimate changes: We rebalance our 2Q26 growth expectations ahead of results on

29th July. Our lowered OSG forecasts in Hot Water reflect the continued slowdown in

the US (where the latest AHRI data remains weak) and headwinds from the Middle

East conflict (MSD % of group sales). This is offset by higher near-term growth

expectations for Burners and for Heating, which follow the strength of European

heat pump volumes in 1Q (+17% YoY) and the latest subsidy application data from

Germany that shows continued positive momentum in the quarter. Over the

mid-term, however, we lower our organic growth forecasts to reflect recent changes