Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK): New listings and profit growth inflection to drive sustainable ADT growth; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK): New listings and profit growth inflection to drive sustainable ADT growth; Buy

Equity Research

15 July 2026 | 8:02PM HKT

Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK): New listings and profit growth

inflection to drive sustainable ADT growth; Buy

YTD (as of Jul 14) HKEX share price (-5%) has tracked the decline in the HSI index Thomas Wang

+852-2978-1697 |

(-6%), despite record market ADT. We believe this reflects investors uncertainty as to thomas.wang@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

whether elevated trading activity is sustainable, given the current episode of ADT

Simone Chen

increase has lasted more than 20 months, vs. slightly over 12 months in previous +852-2978-0619 |

episodes. However, we see multiple tailwinds to ADT/revenue growth heading into simone.chen@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

2H26:

1H26 ADT growth supported by rising investor interest and new listings: the ADT

increase in 2026 comes amid a backdrop of weak index performance and market cap

decline, implying a yoy increase in trading velocity, particularly for non-southbound

investors. In addition, we highlight that companies newly listed since 2025/2026

make up 11%/6% of Jun 2026 ADT. With a record IPO pipeline and continued strong

performance of the newly listed companies, this should support further ADT growth

in 2H26.

ADT drag from the Internet sector to reduce: ADT increase in 1H26 was achieved

despite a 22% yoy decline in ADT for the 8 largest internet companies, with their

combined ADT contribution down from 23% in 1H25 to 15% in 1H26. With 1)

consensus profit growth expected to return to positive growth in 3Q26 and 2) an

easier base effect, we see reduced drag/potentially positive boost to ADT in 2H26.