LATAM Today: July 15, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: July 15, 2026

Goldman Sachs LATAM Today

Data This Week:

Tomorrow: Budget Balance (June); we expect the June budget balance to continue the

government’s policy of fiscal restraint and be consistent with a zero balance (primary

surplus) throughout 2026. In general, disciplined spending has offset softer government

revenues so far in 2026. As of May, the cumulative primary surplus reached 0.7% of GDP,

while the overall balance surplus stood at 0.2% of GDP. Total government revenues have

fallen 4.3% in real terms, and total expenditure is down by a somewhat lower 3.1%

year-to-date.

SA

BRAZIL

Weak Services Activity in May

Bottom Line: Services recorded a 0.4% mom sa decline in May, weaker than consensus for a

milder 0.1% decline. The composition of the report was mixed: supported by increases in

services to households and professional and administrative services and dragged down by

transportation/storage/mail and other services. The carryover for 2Q26 is at 0.2% qoq sa, and

for 2026 at 0.9%.

Going forward, we expect services activity to benefit from continued robust federal

fiscal transfers to low-income households with a high propensity to consume, the

expansion of real household labor and non-labor disposable income, targeted lending

program, the increase in the exemption threshold for personal income tax, and

measures to ease debt service—mitigated by tight domestic monetary and financial

conditions, high inflation, high levels of household indebtedness, and low levels of

economic slack (unemployment rate below the NAIRU and output gap in positive

territory). Gross household real disposable income expanded a high 5.7% yoy (3mma) in

May (3.8% yoy a year ago), which, allied with a strong labor market backdrop, should

support spending in the coming months.