Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AX): 2Q26 result: Big assets perform strongly, Fe & metal prices strong, although working cap builds US$1.2bn; Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AX): 2Q26 result: Big assets perform strongly, Fe & metal prices strong, although working cap builds US$1.2bn; Neutral

Equity Research

15 July 2026 | 8:15PM AEST

Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AX): 2Q26 result: Big assets perform strongly, Fe &

metal prices strong, although working cap builds US$1.2bn; Neutral

RIO reported a solid June Q with group copper equivalent (CuEq) production up 3% Paul Young

+61(2)9321-8302 |

YoY in 1H26, supported by the highest first-half Pilbara iron ore production since paul.young1@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

2018, another strong result from Escondida, and a continued strong ramp-up of the

Chris Bulgin

Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold underground (1H +31% YoY). That said, group copper +61(2)9321-8936 | chris.bulgin@gs.com

production of 213kt in 2Q was down 7% QoQ (below GSe and Visible Alpha Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Consensus Data), impacted by lower Kennecott output due to reduced concentrate

availability, geotechnical issues, and a flash converting furnace breach in June

(requiring a ~75-day rebuild). Realised pricing for Fe/Al/Cu was broadly in-line with

our estimates. Notably, RIO cut copper C1 net unit cost guidance to US30-50c/lb

(from US65-75c/lb), in-line with our prior forecasts of US43c/lb (vs. Visible Alpha

Consensus Data at US51c/lb), on higher gold prices and productivity. All other

production and sales guidance for 2026 was maintained. Working cap increased by

US$1.2bn in the half and cash tax to Mongolia by ~US$0.44bn.

1H 2026 result preview

RIO will release 1H26 results on 29 July. We forecast underlying EBITDA US$14.9bn

(vs. Visible Alpha Consensus Data of US$15.1bn; prior to the 2Q26 result), underlying

earnings of ~US$6.2bn, and net debt of ~US$14.8bn, and an interim dividend of