2Q26 preview: Prefer Fintech and Capital Markets over Incumbent Banks in Brazil

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 preview: Prefer Fintech and Capital Markets over Incumbent Banks in Brazil

Equity Research

15 July 2026 | 6:49AM EDT

LATIN AMERICA BANKS

2Q26 preview: Prefer Fintech and Capital Markets over Incumbent

Banks in Brazil

Mixed results in Mexico, while Chile benefits from high UF Tito Labarta

+1(212)357-6760 | tito.labarta@gs.com

Trends should remain muted for Brazil incumbent banks on decelerating loan and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

revenue growth alongside lingering asset quality concerns, with Banco do Brasil Tiago Binsfeld, CFA

facing the most uncertainty on rural credit provisions. Among digital banks, we +55(11)3371-4574tiago.binsfeld@gs.com|

expect sequentially better results at NU driven by cost-of-risk normalization and Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

Juliana Oharasolid loan growth, while INTR shows bottom-line expansion on better NIM. We also +55(11)3372-0202 |

prefer Capital Markets names (BPAC and XP) over banks, given lower credit-risk juliana.ohara@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

exposure and decent sequential growth despite still muted DCM activity. Outside

Brazil, we expect overall bottom-line expansion in Mexico, and what we believe to be

an unsustainable strong quarter in Chile on higher UF inflation. Finally, we see better

trends in Colombia at Cibest and broadly stable earnings in Peru at Credicorp.

Brazil incumbent banks to report muted results, with asset quality concerns

We expect Brazil banks to report overall muted results, with decelerating loan and

revenue growth and concerns over asset quality. Central Bank data through May

shows a 40bps increase in retail NPLs since March, while rural delinquency jumps by

also 40bps qoq (note), which likely depends on regulatory resolutions before

normalizing.