Bifurcation ahead of 2Q26 EPS: reinvigorated retail equity/options momentum, vs. muted spot crypto volumes

Research evidence excerpt

Bifurcation ahead of 2Q26 EPS: reinvigorated retail equity/options momentum, vs. muted spot crypto volumes

Equity Research

15 July 2026 | 5:41AM EDT

AMERICAS BROKERS & CRYPTO

Bifurcation ahead of 2Q26 EPS: reinvigorated retail equity/options momentum, vs. muted spot

crypto volumes

In 2Q26, brokers & crypto stocks rose 40% on average, markets separate from crypto prices (Buy-rated FIGR). James Yaro

+1(212)902-1913 |

outpacing the S&P 500 by ~20pp, driven by multiple Industry retail equity trading volume rose 14%/11% MoM james.e.yaro@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

rerating. However, performance across the group was in June/May, inflecting after three consecutive months of

Divyam Harlalka

bifurcated, with significant outperformance by more sequential decline. Volumes remain modestly lower YoY, +1(332)245-7818 | divyam.harlalka@gs.com

traditional retail brokers (e.g., HOOD and IBKR), while suggesting further runway for growth. While crypto Goldman Sachs India SPL

digital asset-skewed firms underperformed, reflecting a volumes inflected positively, up 18% MoM in June, crypto Matthew Weng +1(212)902-8484 |

softer spot crypto market. We see divergent trends even market cap inflected negatively again, down 18% from the matthew.weng@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

within crypto, with strong perpetual futures (perps) most recent spike. In addition, the market forward interest Lokesh Kumar Sangewar

volumes growth, vs. spot remaining challenged. We rates curve continues to shift upward, now pricing in ~1.5 +1(332)245-7846lokesh.sangewar@gs.com|

highlight four key themes into earnings: 1) durability of rate hikes in 2026E (or ~2.5 more hikes by end-2027E Goldman Sachs India SPL

the retail traditional brokerage acceleration, and the compared to previous curve in our models).