Ultrap (UGPA3.SA): 2Q26 Preview: A positive quarter ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Ultrap (UGPA3.SA): 2Q26 Preview: A positive quarter ahead

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15 Jul 2026 17:23:11 ET │ 18 pages

Ultrapar (UGPA3.SA)

2Q26 Preview: A positive quarter ahead

CITI'S TAKE

Buy We update our model to reflect fresh macroeconomic estimates and our

estimates for 2Q26 volumes for Ipiranga/Ultragaz. We expect a higher YoY Price (15 Jul 26 14:44) R$30.79

recurring EBITDA, mainly reflecting the better performance of Ipiranga, Target price R$35.00↑

amid this scenario of higher margins, lower diesel imports and lower from R$33.00

competition from irregular players in the country. The higher EBITDA, Expected share price return 13.7%

combined with a relevant release of cash allocated in working capital lines, Expected dividend yield 7.1%

given the easing in Middle East conflict and normalization in fuels supply,

Expected total return 20.8% we expect the company to print a relevant FCFE generation of c.R$3bn.

Market Cap R$34,357M Furthermore, we increased our TP to R$35.0/sh(from R$33.0/sh), mainly

reflecting the higher Ipiranga valuation, underpinned by better US$6,774M

competitive environment in the country, but we believe that most of the

upside in the fuels arena is already priced in, with downside risks on the

radar, such as lower margins ahead in fuel distribution industry, given the

Gabriel BarraAC

lower gap between domestic and international prices. +55-11-4009-2223

gabriel.barra@citi.com

Ipiranga — We expect Ipiranga to improve margins and sales volumes on a YoY Pedro Gama

basis, supported by a healthier competitive environment, benefiting from the lower

+55-21-4009-0431presence of irregular practices in the industry combined with a tightness in domestic

pedro.gama@citi.cominventories, from the closed import window since March, given the conflict in the