Nexa Resources (NEXA.N): 2Q26 Preview: Stable quarter, stronger 2H ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Nexa Resources (NEXA.N): 2Q26 Preview: Stable quarter, stronger 2H ahead

Action |

15 Jul 2026 11:00:11 ET │ 15 pages

Nexa Resources (NEXA.N)

2Q26 Preview: Stable quarter, stronger 2H ahead

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral We expect Nexa to report another resilient quarter, with 2Q26 adjusted

EBITDA of US$285mn (+77% YoY; +1% QoQ), driven by Mining EBITDA of Price (14 Jul 26 16:00) US$14.52

US$238mn and Smelting EBITDA of US$47mn (+84% YoY; -9% QoQ). Target price US$16.00

More importantly, we are revising our 2026 zinc price assumption to Expected share price return 10.2%

US$3,459/t (from US$3,009/t), reflecting the stronger forward curve and Expected dividend yield 0.6%

leading us to raise our 2H26 earnings estimates. Despite these upward Expected total return 10.7%

revisions, we maintain our R$16/sh TP, as our valuation continues to

Market Cap US$1,923M assume a long-term zinc price of US$2,800/t, which remains the key

offset to a more constructive stance. Nevertheless, we continue to see

Nexa on a solid deleveraging path, supported by improving operating

performance and stronger cash generation. Gabriel BarraAC

+55-11-4009-2223

Results — Mining should remain the key earnings contributor this quarter. gabriel.barra@citi.com

Excluding the planned maintenance stoppage at Aripuanã, operations were largely

stable, while the fourth filter is now fully operational. Although the maintenance

temporarily affected volumes, production should remain comfortably within

company guidance. Looking ahead, we expect Aripuanã to deliver a stronger

operating performance in 2H26, with the mine ramping up to approximately 16kt of

zinc production per quarter, reinforcing its contribution to earnings over the coming

quarters. Costs should increase mainly reflecting higher mine development

expenses.