China Macro Tracker: Expanding consumption, led by services

Research evidence excerpt

China Macro Tracker: Expanding consumption, led by services

15 July 2026

China Macro Tracker EconomicsChina

Expanding consumption, led by services

◆ The 15th FYP for consumption targets 3.7% retail sales CAGR, Erin Xin

but the priority is on services consumption expansion SeniorThe HongkongEconomist,and ShanghaiGreater ChinaBanking Corporation Limited

erin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk

◆ Green transition to accelerate via faster non-fossil fuel targets +852 2996 6975

and grid upgrades TaylorEconomist,WangChina

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

◆ Fiscal policy likely a key focus for the July Politburo meeting; taylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2288 8650

monetary policy to remain supportive through targeted measures Jing Liu

Chief Economist, Greater China

Blueprint for expanding consumption: services to drive growth The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited jing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk

On 13 July, Premier Li Qiang chaired a symposium with economists and +852 3941 0063

entrepreneurs, signalling policy priorities for the second half of the year: 1) boosting Heidi Li

Associate

consumption, with a particular focus on services; 2) driving investment through major Guangzhou

infrastructure network projects and improved livelihoods; and 3) supporting

employment to strengthen household income prospects and consumer confidence.

The State Council also released the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) for expanding

consumption, with the goal to significantly increase household consumption, while

targeting retail sales to reach around RMB60trn by 2030 (State Council, 13 July),

implying a CAGR of 3.7% in nominal terms. However, retail sales grew 1.4% y-o-y in

January-May (chart 1), highlighting short-term cyclical pressures. With trade-in