Macau Gaming: FIFA World Cup hangover, not a structural break

Research evidence excerpt

Macau Gaming: FIFA World Cup hangover, not a structural break

15 July 2026

Macau Gaming EquitiesHotels Restaurants & Leisure

FIFA World Cup hangover, not a structural break Hong Kong

◆ We cut FY26 GGR growth to 4% y-o-y, assuming 2H26 to Charlene Liu*

track largely in-line with seasonality off a lower 2Q26 HeadThe Hongkongof InternetandandShanghaiGamingBankingResearch,CorporationAsia Pacific

Limited, Singapore Branch

◆ Our sensitivity analysis suggests 3-5% downside to our 2026e charlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg

+65 6658 0615

EBITDA if 2H26 were to turn negative to -4% y-o-y

Jessie Lu*, CFA

Analyst, Internet and Gaming Research

◆ Lower all TPs; maintain Buy on Sands, Galaxy, & MGM China The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

jessie.x.lu@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6570

Run rate unlikely to pick up before the end of July: June gross gaming revenue

Lauren Cai*

(GGR) missed consensus, and we think the impact of the FIFA World Cup, weak macro Associate

conditions, APEC ministerial meeting at end-June, and potential liquidity control may have Guangzhou

all played a role. We expect the run rate to remain slow until the FIFA World Cup ends in

the second half of July, but we see gradual recovery in demand as the summer crowd * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

builds up, provided there is favourable weather. We expect the 3Q26 GGR run rate to

rebound to the high-end of the historical seasonality range, especially after a weaker than

expected 2Q26, and 4Q26 to be broadly in-line with the seasonality average. We estimate

1% y-o-y in 2H26 and 4% y-o-y in 2026 full year GGR growth, versus 8% previously. We

cut 2026e EBITDA by 6-7% due to operating deleveraging, and we cut the target prices