South Africa Banks: Modestly constructive operating backdrop in May-26

Research evidence excerpt

South Africa Banks: Modestly constructive operating backdrop in May-26

Equity Research

15 July 2026 | 10:02AM GST

South Africa Banks: Modestly constructive operating backdrop in

May-26

With this note, we review the latest BA900 data. Kazim Andac

+971(4)214-9958 |

kazim.andac@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

May sector loan/deposit growth +9%/+10% yoy Ashwath P T, CFA

We review the latest BA900 data for May 2026, which point to a modestly +971(4)376-3439Goldman Sachs International| ashwath.pt@gs.com

constructive backdrop for South African banks, with sector loan growth of c.+9% yoy Gokul Vinayak L

and total funding growth improving to c.+10% yoy (vs. +9% in April). Lending +1(332)245-7976 | gokul.l@gs.com

Goldman Sachs India SPL

momentum remained broadly stable, with corporate and retail loan growth at

c.+11% and c.+5% yoy, respectively. Within retail, installment finance remained the

fastest-growing segment at c.+10% yoy, while mortgages, credit cards and

unsecured lending grew by c.+3-4% yoy. At the bank level, FirstRand outperformed

peers with c.+10% yoy loan growth, supported by stronger corporate lending, while

Standard Bank recorded the strongest funding growth at c.+14% yoy.

Macro outlook

Despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty and volatile oil prices, South Africa

continues to benefit from supportive commodity demand, particularly across PGMs,

precious metals and industrial metals. Our economists expect South African inflation

at 3.9% in 2026 (vs. 3.2% in 2025) and real GDP growth of 1.6% (vs. 1.1% in 2025).

We expect the operating backdrop for banks to remain broadly supportive as loan

growth continues to recover and funding growth remains robust. GS economists now

expect SARB to maintain its policy rate at 7%, though we note the previous hike