China: Real GDP growth slowed meaningfully in Q2 amid mixed June activity data

Research evidence excerpt

China: Real GDP growth slowed meaningfully in Q2 amid mixed June activity data

Economics Research

15 July 2026 | 12:47PM HKT

China: Real GDP growth slowed meaningfully in Q2 amid mixed June

activity data

Bottom line: Lisheng Wang

+852-3966-4004 |

lisheng.wang@gs.com

China’s real GDP growth slowed meaningfully in Q2 and missed market expectations, Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

reflecting the negative impact from the global energy shock, slower government

spending, and adverse weather conditions, although June activity data were mixed –

industrial production (IP) and retail sales beat expectations, while fixed asset

investment (FAI) missed. The details suggest China’s economy remains highly

bifurcated: exports and manufacturing—especially in the high-tech sectors—stayed

resilient, while property construction and consumer spending remained weak. Real

GDP growth slowed meaningfully to 4.3% yoy in Q2 from 5.0% yoy in Q1, with

sequential growth easing to 0.9% qoq sa non-annualized in Q2 from 1.3% qoq sa

non-annualized in Q1. By contrast, nominal GDP growth jumped to 5.9% yoy in Q2

from 4.9% yoy in Q1, as the GDP deflator turned positive on higher PPI inflation. IP

growth rose to 5.3% yoy in June from 4.5% yoy in May on the back of

stronger-than-expected exports, led by faster output growth in electric machinery,

general equipment and metal product industries. In sequential terms, IP gained 1.0%

mom non-annualized (vs. 0.4% mom non-annualized in May), consistent with last

year’s pattern of firmer sequential growth in quarter-end months. On a single-month

basis, FAI growth remained depressed at -9.3% yoy in June despite a small

improvement from -10.6% yoy in May, as unfavorable weather and slow government

spending continued to weigh on activity.