Mexico Retail: Mixed consumer backdrop ahead of 2Q26 earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico Retail: Mixed consumer backdrop ahead of 2Q26 earnings

Equity Research

15 July 2026 | 2:34AM EDT

We expect Mexican retailers to report relatively soft 2Q26 results. Despite a resilient Irma Sgarz

+1(212)357-3770 | irma.sgarz@gs.com

labor market, the consumer environment remains mixed, with macro indicators such Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

as consumer confidence and remittances in local currency continuing to decline on a Felipe Rached

yoy basis. In addition, industry conversations suggest the FIFA World Cup in June +55(11)3371-4587felipe.rached@gs.com|

weighed on store traffic. In this context, ANTAD self-service average SSS came in at Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

Gabriela Leme-0.1% yoy in 2Q (vs. +1.4% yoy in 1Q26). Against this backdrop, we see limited +55(11)3372-3512 |

upside potential from 2Q26 results and reduce our estimates slightly for most gabriela.leme@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

Mexican retailers.

Within our coverage, we see Walmex (Buy) outperforming ANTAD self-service peers

despite below-inflation SSS, while TBBB (Neutral) should continue to stand out,

reflecting its maturing store base and broadening category portfolio. In our view,

Soriana (Sell) is likely to continue to underperform peers, despite its defensive

positioning. We expect Liverpool (Neutral) to post relatively muted sales growth,

given its exposure to more discretionary consumption.

Walmex (Buy) to report a relatively soft 2Q26, but still above peers

We forecast SSS of +1.8% yoy in Mexico, below food inflation of +5.1% in the quarter.

We believe the Bodega format, especially in its larger prototypes, may have

continued to underperform in 2Q, an issue that management flagged on the 1Q26

conference call and will likely elicit investor questions to what degree these are