China banks: Seven key takeaways from Asia Financials Corporate Day

Research evidence excerpt

China banks: Seven key takeaways from Asia Financials Corporate Day

14 July 2026

China banks EquitiesCommercial Banks

Seven key takeaways from Asia Financials Corporate

Day China

◆ We hosted ICBC, CCB, BOC, CMB and CITICB in our recent Gary Lam*, CFA

Asia Financials Corporate Day during 6-9 July 2026 Head of Greater China Financials Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

gary.lam@hsbc.com.hk

◆ We outline key takeaways on NIM, loan growth, wealth, +852 2996 6926

capital, policy direction, asset quality and non-interest income Yiwei Liu*

Associate, China Banks

◆ Prefer CCB-H, BOC-H and ICBC-H ahead of 2Q26 earnings yi.wei.liu@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6635

(1) NIM trend stays positive overall – We expect NIM to be stable or mildly Simon Ling*

expanding at large state-owned banks, supported by ongoing repricing of time Associate

Guangzhou

deposits. We expect state-owned banks’ NIM to outperform retail-oriented banks,

which face weaker retail loan demand (mortgages and non-mortgage).

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

(2) Loan growth market share shift continues – Large state-owned banks are

likely to keep gaining loan market share, driven mainly by corporate lending and

deeper participation in national policy-led priorities. Overall loan growth may slow in

2026 versus 2025, as banks prioritise quality over quantity.

(3) Wealth income: growth driver is shifting – Overall wealth management

demand remains solid, but the mix is shifting. Fund sales are improving amid

elevated market confidence and banks’ in-house recommendations to overweight

equities. In contrast, insurance sales could be pressured by lower illustrated rates of