SanBio (4592.T): Upgrading to Buy/High Risk on marked undervaluation. Profile to rise on start of Akugo administration

Research evidence excerpt

SanBio (4592.T): Upgrading to Buy/High Risk on marked undervaluation. Profile to rise on start of Akugo administration

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15 Jul 2026 02:35:13 ET │ 15 pages

SanBio (4592.T)

Upgrading to Buy/High Risk on marked undervaluation. Profile to rise on

start of Akuugo administration

CITI'S TAKE Buy / High Risk ↑ from Neutral / High Risk

Short-Term View: Upside

On May 20, the NHI price of Akuugo—a cell therapy for chronic motor

Price (14 Jul 26 15:30) ¥1,008.0 paralysis associated with traumatic brain injury (TBI)—was officially listed

Target price ¥1,800.0↓ at ¥72.716mn per treatment course in Japan, topping our ¥10mn

assumption. SanBio revised its FY1/27 sales forecast, factoring in Akuugo from ¥2,200.0

sales of c¥400mn assuming six treated patients. SanBio's market size Expected share price return 78.6%

projections were disclosed in Chuikyo materials; it estimates 39 patients Expected dividend yield 0.0%

treated and ¥2.8bn in sales in year 10. Although Akuugo's listed Expected total return 78.6%

price proved higher than expected, both the company forecasts and Market Cap ¥78,683M

market size projection appear to be significantly below consensus, which

US$488M caused the stock price to decline sharply. We revise our forecasts and

lower our target price by ¥400 to ¥1,800. However, with an expected total

return now of 79%, we upgrade to Buy/High Risk from Neutral High/Risk.

Hidemaru YamaguchiAC

Earnings forecast and target price — We revise our earnings forecasts based on the +81-3-6776-4620

new Akuugo price. We forecast peak Japan annual Akuugo sales at ¥90bn and peak hidemaru.yamaguchi@citi.com

US sales at ¥150bn. We revise up our sales forecasts and revise our outlook for

expenses, resulting in upward revisions to long-term profit projections. We conclude