2Q26 Protein Commodity Update

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Protein Commodity Update

Equity Research

15 July 2026

Americas Agribusiness

As we wrap up the second quarter of 2026, we look at

commodity costs and spreads as well as coverage

implications. We find a continuation of 1Q trends, where beef Americas Agribusiness NEUTRAL

margins face significant structural headwinds, poultry Americas Agribusiness

earnings are likely to again decline YoY, and pork should Benjamin M. Theurer

remain stable. +52 55 5241 3322 benjamin.theurer@barclays.com

BCCB, Mexico

Beef: Slaughter and beef production levels once again declined YoY as the US herd count Rahi Parikh

remains low – we flag that the underlying slaughter makeup continues to suggest not enough +1 212 526 0150

heifers are being held back. As such, cattle prices are elevated YoY and once again present a cost rahi.parikh@barclays.com

challenge for beef producers. The cutout value did not see the typical grilling season rise – BCI, US

hinting at a constrained consumer – and leaves per head gross losses well below $100 per head. Ryan Lavin

We note that NWS continues to remain a headwind, and recent legislative actions are unlikely to +1 212 526 8713

provide a major shift to demand or pricing. International cattle in both Brazil and Australia ryan.lavin1@barclays.com

shows higher YoY prices, likely negatively impacting margins. BCI, US

Reid Monahan

Poultry: Strong placements and productivity have driven higher YoY production, translating

+1 212 526 7506

into lower pricing. Consequently, we expect softer commodity bird margins for 2Q – especially reid.monahan@barclays.com

given the difficult comp base. We also flag that higher soy meal costs could eat into profits, BCI, US

though we continue to see pricing as the main margin driver. Additionally, we note another