2Q26 Earnings Setup: Capex Up, Market Breadth Down

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Earnings Setup: Capex Up, Market Breadth Down

Equity Research

Equity Strategy

15 July 2026

U.S. Equity Insights

2Q26 Earnings Setup: Capex Up,

Market Breadth Down

2Q26 earnings kick off with improving EPS momentum

U.S. Equity Strategy

post-1Q upside. Market breadth remains weak but stabilizing, Venu Krishna, CFA

led by Tech without Big Tech. Big Tech fundamentals stay +1 212 526 7328 venu.krishna@barclays.com

strong with returns driven by EPS revisions and capex BCI, US

momentum remains intact. Riddhiman Dass

+1 212 526 0850

riddhiman.dass@barclays.com

• Earnings season backdrop and what to expect: 2Q26 reporting is underway, with Big Tech BCI, US

results clustered in late July (starting with GOOGL, META, MSFT). The S&P 500 has seen short-

Rex Feng

term volatility rising since the start of 2026, yet 2Q26 EPS estimates have trended up after a + 1 212 526 6114

stronger than expected 1Q26. Our 2Q26 EPS view (~$82) approximates consensus. rex.feng@barclays.com

BCI, US

• Breadth has stabilized, with Tech continuing to lead. Against the backdrop of ongoing

Middle East tensions and the recent semiconductor selloff, the share of S&P 500 constituents Tianqi Feng

+1 212 526 9179 outperforming the index has edged lower to ~37% (from ~40% last quarter), remaining well

tianqi.feng@barclays.com

below LT norms. Within the specific categories, Tech (outside the mega-caps) has led 2Q26

performance, while Big Tech has slightly lagged the broader market.

Atharva Weling

• Big Tech fundamentals remain resilient, even as multiples contract. While Big Tech +1 212 526 3204

valuations have lagged, consensus points to modest margin expansion in 2Q26 (~28% vs. atharva.weling@barclays.com

BCI, US ~27% in 2Q25) alongside a robust ~31% earnings growth, well ahead of the broader index,