Navigating 2H26: Stock Differentiation Accelerates, Large Banks Still Lead

Research evidence excerpt

Navigating 2H26: Stock Differentiation Accelerates, Large Banks Still Lead

Goldman Sachs China Banks

Exhibit 1: Since the beginning of the year, our covered Exhibit 2: ...and +6% in H shares

banks (market-cap weighted) have recorded returns of

-2% in A shares...

A-share banks share price change since 2026 H-share banks share price change since 2026

20 20 18

15 12 Performance

divergence: 15

12 cap Performance 10 30% 10 10 (mkt 5 divergence: weighted) 10 5 1 1 27%

% 0 5

% -5 -2

-3 -3 -3 -4 -5 0 -10 -7 (mkt cap

-15 weighted) -12 -5 -2

-20 -15 -6

-10 -9 -10

-15

BOC (H) ICBC (H) BoCom CCB (H) Covered ABC (H) PSBC CMB (H) HSCEI

(H) banks (H)

(H)

Source: Wind Source: Wind

The authors would like to thank Zihan Wang for her contributions to this report.

1. Will Bank NIMs Continue to Improve?

Amidst a macroeconomic environment characterized by slowing TSF growth and

weakening loan demand (Exhibit 3), banks’ NIM remains a pivotal determinant of

revenue. Reflected in the 4Q25 and 1Q26 results, most banks demonstrated sequential

NIM improvement, primarily driven by deposit repricing. While many banks still

perceive further room for deposit cost reduction, we anticipate the magnitude of

this decline will gradually narrow in 2H26, primarily for the following reasons:

1) Significant deposit cost reduction has already materialized. The cost of 3-year

time deposits, for instance, has decreased from a peak of 2.75% to the current 1.25%

(Exhibit 5). And empirical data indicates that the majority of new deposit inflows for

most banks occur in the first half of the year. For our covered banks, new deposits in 1H

accounted for an average of 71% of total annual new deposits over the past three years

(2023-2025) (Exhibit 6). This suggests that, following this pattern, the bulk of deposit