Australian Metals & Mining Weekly: Macro headwinds for metals, Gold M&A, S32: shrink to grow, NST to Neutral.

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Australian Metals & Mining Weekly: Macro headwinds for metals, Gold M&A, S32: shrink to grow, NST to Neutral.

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Australian Metals & Mining Weekly

Macro headwinds for metals, Gold M&A,

S32: shrink to grow, NST to Neutral.

Industry Overview

The ‘S32 is simpler already’ tour: shrink to grow back 13 July 2026

S32 held a sell-side roundtable with new CEO Matt Daley, outgoing CEO Graham Kerr Equity

and the CFO. We like the cleaner story post US$5bn crystallisation of Ali portfolio. Q&A Australia

focused on 'what next', growth projects, the $125mpa cost out, further simplification Metals & Mining

(manganese, listings), shareholder returns. Needs to deliver on i) cost out ii) Hermosa iii) Kate McCutcheon >>

Sierra Gorda 4GL iv) Cannington extension. S32 is busy. Execution and delivery is a key Research Analyst

focus for management. See: The ‘S32 is simpler already’ tour: shrink to grow back Merrill+61 2 9226Lynch5728(Australia)

kate.mccutcheon@bofa.com

ASX Miners: Tempering our near-term enthusiasm Chen Jiang >>

Our Metals Strategists moderated near-term views i.e. 26e aluminium -9%, copper -3%, gold Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Australia)

-14%. We update our coverage estimates: FY27 EBITDA down 8%. Higher rates, stronger chen_jiang@bofa.com

USD=headwind for metals. Opex headwinds too. Key recs: BUY: SFR, S32, LYC, WHC. Neutral: Elaine Faddis >>

BHP, MIN, RIO. Underperform: FMG. See: Tempering our near-term enthusiasm ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Australia)

elaine.faddis@bofa.com

ASX golds: Lowering CY26/27 but long term is up Paul Wiggers de Vries

We lower our CY26/27 gold deck to US$4360/oz and US$4813/oz respectively but lift Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Australia)

LT prices US$500/oz to US3500/oz.