European Rates Watch: EGB supply, positioning & flows

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European Rates Watch: EGB supply, positioning & flows

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European Rates Watch

EGB supply, positioning & flows

Futures positioning: Front-end back in favour 13 July 2026

Outstanding: Across the German curve, DU remains the most net-long contract Rates Research

followed by UB (Exhibit 11). In contrast, positioning in OE and RX is net short. In Italian Europe

contracts, investors are net long in IK as well as BTS, although the latter being more

European Rates Research

moderate. Meanwhile, net positioning in OATs is lightly net short. MLI (UK)

Edvard Davidsson

Weekly change (Wed-Wed): Net positioning was led by new longs added in DU Rates Strategist

futures, and new shorts in OE, RX, and UB contracts. In both the Italian IK and French MLI (UK)

edvard.davidsson@bofa.com

OAT future, reduced longs led the weekly change in positioning (Exhibit 12).

Sphia Salim

Rates Strategist

MLI (UK)Benchmark investors increase EUR duration exposure sphia.salim@bofa.com

In our latest FXRS survey we noted benchmark investors increasing their exposure to

Nathan Thomas, CFA

Core Europe duration, as sentiment turned more bullish (Exhibit 31). Similarly, investors Rates Strategist

increased exposure to peripheral Europe duration as well, again turning overweight after MLI (UK) nathan.thomas@bofa.com

the previous month’s underweight positioning (Exhibit 32). See Team Page for List of Analysts

Unlike in EUR rates, investors instead turned more underweight US duration while

decreasing their overweight positioning in UK rates (Exhibit 33).

Long-end investor demand elevated to start the year For a list of all our open trades

According to the latest ECB data, EA insurers and pension funds were large buyers of and trade closed over the past 12