European Metals & Mining Weekly: Commodity price changes. Steel expert call. Mini-Primer correlations. South32.

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European Metals & Mining Weekly: Commodity price changes. Steel expert call. Mini-Primer correlations. South32.

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European Metals & Mining Weekly

Commodity price changes. Steel expert

call. Mini-Primer correlations. South32.

Industry Overview

Moderating forecasts as possible détente eases markets 13 July 2026

Our strategists update forecasts (Link: Strategist). After 12+ months of policy (and Equity

other) "surprises", for now, risks of volatility from war and a possible energy induced Europe

demand shock appear to be declining. We do moderate near-term views as some (AI Non-Ferrous Metals,Mining &

related?) "froth" comes out of markets. Higher rates, stronger dollar = Not bullish gold. Minerals

Key changes: 2026E aluminium -9% to US$3292/t. 2026E Copper -3% to US$12,889/t. Jason Fairclough >>

2026E Gold -14% to US$4360/oz. (See our report: European Metals & Mining.) Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

Strategist: Summertime blues for base and precious +44jason.fairclough@bofa.com20 7995 0225

Concerns over an energy shock have been an overhang to many mined commodities. Kate McCutcheon >>

While hostilities in the Middle East have been subsiding, we believe it will take time for ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Australia)

uncertainties to flush out. As such, the backdrop for the mined commodities should Lawson Winder, CFA >>

remain challenging into autumn, prompting us to cut forecasts especially for the base Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Canada)

and precious metals. (See our report: Global Metals Weekly: Spanner in the works)

Reinhardt van der Walt >>

Mini primer: Commodity equity correlations ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

We refresh a simple (but fun!) analysis looking at correlations of various Metals & Mining Paul Kirjanovs >>