European Trucks: Q2 preview: preparing for upshift

Research evidence excerpt

European Trucks: Q2 preview: preparing for upshift

Accessible version

European Trucks

Q2 preview: preparing for upshift

Price Objective Change

Q2 profits mixed, but strong orders to drive H2 upgrades 13 July 2026

We think Q2 truck OEM profits will be mixed (avg +2% vs cons on underlying basis), but Equity

expect strong orders across all OEMs (+5%) to drive upward volume revisions for 2H26 (and Europe

into 2027). Associated operating leverage means we see solid upside to margin and profit Truck/Bus Manufacturers

expectations from H2 onwards too; our 2026/27 adj Industrial EBIT ests average 7/5% above Alexander Jones, CFA >>

consensus. In our view this should support sector share prices which have appeared range- Research Analyst

bound recently. Valuation remains attractive with EU truck OEMs trading at 8.7x 2027E P/E, MLI+44 (UK)20 7995 5828

just a turn above their 10yr average 7.7x despite the positive (US) cyclical outlook as well as alexander.jones2@bofa.com

improving business quality over time. We think Buy-rated Volvo’s Q2 results are most likely Benjamin Heelan >>

Research Analyst

to generate a positive share price reaction, as outlined below. Merrill Lynch (DIFC)

+44 20 7996 5723

We see four key themes to watch beyond headline results benjamin.heelan@bofa.com

(1) EPA27: final rules could lower price increases into ‘27 as penalties < compliance cost Uma Samlin >> Research Analyst

(at least for some OEMs). We don’t think this changes market outlook much given strong MLI (UK)

US demand. DTG/Traton should still see margin boost vs competition given lower NOx +44uma.samlin@bofa.com20 7995 1964

emissions of existing engines (penalty scales with NOx). (2) FY guides: in our view US Aron Ceccarelli >>