High Grade Basic Materials Weekly: Week to end July 10, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

High Grade Basic Materials Weekly: Week to end July 10, 2026

al resilience under elevated rates. We view rate

volatility as the more important driver of sector spreads. Notably, homebuilder spreads

have yet to fully retrace their Iran war-related widening from early March despite

volatility returning towards 18-month lows, suggesting current levels are somewhat

cheap. With our Rates Research team (see report) expecting volatility to remain subdued

over the next 6-12 months, we believe Homebuilder spreads (at a sector level) could

grind modestly tighter going forward, provided housing fundamentals remain stable.

Improved credit profiles with durable long-term tailwinds

The key difference between today's homebuilders and prior cycles is credit quality.

Following the GFC, management teams de-levered balance sheets, adopted more

disciplined capital allocation policies, and shifted toward asset-light land strategies that

improve capital flexibility. Industry consolidation has also improved supply discipline and

pricing power, with the largest public builders accounting for a significantly larger share

of new home deliveries than prior cycles. The result is a sector that operates with lower

leverage, stronger liquidity, and materially higher credit ratings than in the past, helping

explain why builders’ spreads have remained resilient despite several years of high

mortgage rates and soft demand. Beyond improved credit profiles, the sector also

benefits from favorable long-term fundamentals, including aging millennials entering

peak homebuying years, chronic housing undersupply following nearly two decades of

underbuilding, and an aging housing stock, all of which should support demand for new

homes well beyond the current cycle.